Key figures in the Revised National Budget 2025

The situation in the global economy has changed significantly since last autumn, with increased tariffs and significant trade policy tensions between the US and other countries. Developments in recent months indicate lower growth among several of our trading partners, but to a lesser extent in the euro area. Uncertainty is high, and the risk of a global economic downturn has increased.

Economic activity in Norway is picking up. Unemployment has been lower than expected and is projected to remain low. Inflation has come down and was 2.5 per cent in April. Along with high wage growth this will improve households’ purchasing power. It is too soon to determine how inflation will be affected by trade tensions, but it may take some time for inflation to return to the inflation target. GDP for mainland Norway (non-oil GDP) is projected to grow by 1.8 per cent this year while inflation is projected to be 2.8 per cent.

A new geopolitical situation and trade conflicts has created uncertainty about future developments. This heightens the need for stable governance and responsible economic policy.

Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global is projected at NOK 542 billion. This corresponds to 2.7 per cent of the value of the fund at the start of the year, well below the long-term 3 percent guideline stipulated by the fiscal rule.

In April the Norwegian Parliament unanimously decided to increase military support to Ukraine by NOK 50 billion, which will be used in its entirety to provide military support through international initiatives and procurements from the Ukrainian defence industry. This is not expected to affect the activity level in the Norwegian Economy. Excluding the increased support for Ukraine, fund spending is estimated at NOK 492 billion, which is at the same level as in the 2025 budget passed before Christmas. This results in a fiscal impulse of 1.3 per cent and a structural non-oil fiscal deficit of 11.7 per cent of GDP for mainland Norway, which is also unchanged from the budget passed before Christmas.

Table: Key figures in the Revised National Budget 20251	2024	2025
Norwegian Economy
GDP for mainland Norway (volume)	0.6	1.8
Employment, persons	0.6	0.7
Unemployment rate, registered (level)	2.0	2.1
CPI	3.1	2.8
CPI-ATE	3.7	3.0
Fiscal policy
Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global, per cent2	2.6	2.7
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion, fixed 2025 prices	429.7	542.4
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion	415.1	542.4
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway	10.3	12.9
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Change from previous year (fiscal impulse)3	0.9	2.5
1 Projection for 2025.  Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise stated.
2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of the fund capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.
3 Change from previous year in percentage points.
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration and the Ministry of Finance.